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Hardware

HDTV sales rose to 20.7 million units in 2007, bringing the total installed base to 46.4 million in the U.S. (34% of households). The EMA noted that only 44% of those who own a HDTV actually watch HD programming and 22% believe to watch HD programming, while they in fact do not. The HDTV installed base is still well behind the total installed base of TVs, which was 112.4 million at the end of 2007.

Over the course of the year, 33 million DVD players were sold, bringing the total to 87.3 million console DVD players in the U.S. in 2007. There were also 48.5 million PC DVD players, 29.5 million DVD players in video game systems, 27.2 million portable DVD players and 25.2 million DVRs. 60% of DVD owners are estimated to have more than one DVD player. Almost 4.5 million HD players were sold in 2006 and 2007 in the U.S.

Microsoft sold 316,000 HD DVD add-ons for the Xbox 360.

U.S. PS3 sales were close to 3 million by the end at 2007, and 87% of PS3 owners said they watch Blu-ray movies on their console. The EMA believes that the PS3 will remain the main force behind Blu-ray disc sales until 2009, when standalone Blu-ray players are expected to outpace the sales volume of the PS3. Market research indicates that 100 – 130 million homes worldwide will own at least one Blu-ray player by 2012.

Annual sales of all Blu-ray devices are expected to reach 57.4 million units by that time. The largest market will be Europe with 26.4 million, followed by the U.S. with 22.6 million and Japan with 8.4 million, according to the EMA...

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Blu-Ray can "forcibly win" at any moment. It's merely a matter of the biggest studios to start releasing less and less DVD editions to force the transition to blu-ray, but that would be a last resort measure.

If, however, you look to the numbers of blu-ray adoption, you'll see they're growing a lot more than DVD did upon its inception, so yeah, I predict a safe, staedy increase of blu-ray. Mainly when the el cheapo player brands from China arrive to the market, that's when the boom will be, and I know a lot of people waiting for that (either because they want an el cheapo, or because they're waiting for the effect it will have in the major manufacturers' prices).

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Quoting surfeur51:

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Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:

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The jump is higher.

VHS...330 lines
DVD...480 lines
Blu-ray...1080 lines

DVD is 576 = 330x1,75
1080 = 576x1,87

The jump is quite the same.

In visual impression, the jump between VHS and DVD was far more impressive than between DVD and HD.

DVD is 480 lines in the U.S.  That is a fact.

Even using your numbers, you contradict yourself.  The equation shows a higher percentage jump in information over VHS to DVD.  Whether you claim to see that difference or not is the subjective part.  That fact (even with your higher number of lines for DVD in Europe) is DVD to Blu-ray is a bigger jump in visuals than VHS to DVD.

If you were talking about the audio, that would be a different story.  VHS had 2 channels and DVD has up to 7 channels (plus a boost in the bitrates).

Here is exact information and pictures.  The math is below.

VHS (4:3 ratio) is 300x360 (non broadcast image) = 108,000 pixels
Recorded VHS (broadcast image) is 460x360 = 165,600 pixels
DVD (4:3 ratio) is 720x360 = 259,200 pixels
DVD (16:9 ratio) is 720x480 = 345,600 pixels
Blu-ray (16:9 ratio) is 1920x1080 = 2,073,600 pixels

Best case VHS to DVD pixel increase = 237,600 pixels

DVD to Blu-ray pixel increase = 1,728,000 pixels

Even increasing DVD's vertical resolution (horizontal lines) to 576, it doesn't come close to the increase from DVD to Blu-ray.

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This is important because if they buy 1080p, they will find that SD DVDs do not look that great on a 1080p TV without up-converting.

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If you took up-converting out of the picture, Blu ray would be the rage.

With analog TV falling by the wayside next year here in the U.S., many people are about to buy their first HiDef TV.

This is important because if they buy 1080p, they will find that SD DVDs do not look that great on a 1080p TV without up-converting.

However, if they also buy (or have) an up-converting DVD play, then they may very well pass on Blu ray as just an extravagance.

Joe-six-pack is a pretty cheap breed...odds are not good for mass acceptance of Blu ray...unfortunately.

(BTW-this all goes for HD DVD if it had stayed in the game as well)

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Without upconverting SD DVD's look like crap on a a Full HD TV. I checked that out myself yesterday in various screen resolutions. If upconverted though, they look really good.

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Quoting hal9g:

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This is important because if they buy 1080p, they will find that SD DVDs do not look that great on a 1080p TV without up-converting.

I have to disagree on this point.  My SD DVDs looked pretty darned good on my HD TV.